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Popper’s insight raises the bar for testing the predictions of climate models. past observations — provide only weak evidence for the policy debate, as past data was available to the model’s developers.

The world has warmed since the late 19th century; anthropogenic forces became dominant only after WWII. As usual in climate science, these points have been made — and ignored.

This chapter explains why there is confidence in climate models thus: “Confidence in models comes from their physical basis, and their skill in representing observed climate and past climate changes”.…CMP quality is thus supposed to depend on simulation accuracy.

However, simulation accuracy is not a measure of test severity.

The rebuttal has largely consisted of “trust us” and screaming “denier” at critics.

Neither has produced progress; future historians will wonder why anyone expected them to do so.

Run them with observations made after their creation, not scenarios, so they produce — and compare them with observations from after their creation.

Climate scientists publish little about about the nature of climate science theories. Must theories be falsifiable, and if so, what does that mean?…“It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.”From the Summary of Policymakers to the IPCC’s Working Group I report of AR5.Consider, by way of illustration, the influential approach adopted by Randall et al.in chapter 8 of their contribution to the fourth IPCC report.

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This series seeks tests that both sides can accept — that might move the policy debate beyond today’s futile bickering.

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